The demand for the return of the South Kuril has been one of political folklore in Japan and I would not have believed that the matter is held constant for months on the boil, without resting in between comes. As some German media limited to reproducing the statements by the Tokyo Foreign Ministry, following the Russian perspective is to be displayed.
politics and society in Japan appear to take this matter very seriously. The cause commentators suspect that the leaders of the ruling recently in Tokyo Democratic Party believe absolutely foreign policy to have a successful track record - or at least show activism. Thus, from a low-diplomatic dispute a serious political conflict. Since then, several politicians and officials of Russia had visited the islands have, since early February, the utterances of the Japanese government won its sharpness. A chronology of the individual events can be found here . Of the undiplomatic formulations Japanese officials apparently feel even revisionist elements of Japanese society encourages. Thus, the Russian Embassy in Tokyo recently a packet with a cartridge sent to and during an Demonstartion the flag of the RF public desecrated.
actually some Japanese apparently believe that they could these islands (and perhaps other areas lost in 1945) eventually get back "home into the Reich. A visit by Japanese Foreign Minister to Moscow was not likely to dampen the emotions. On the contrary, the official Tokyo seeks to tough and uncompromising attitude. As an observer, you feel increasingly at the dispute over the Falkland Islands recalls.
In the Russian press, it is assumed that the military weakness of Russia in the Far East region significantly to the recent emergence of the Japanese demands contributed added. Thus, the views in February announced restructuring and boosting the quality of troops stationed in the South Kuril as an adequate measure. To explain this military aspect I quote below a written text the Mikhail Barabanov RIA Novosti added:
"[...]The South Kuril were also one of the training areas during the major maneuver "Vostok-2010" . Here, the open fighting of the occupied islands was practiced. Apparently the result was not satisfactory and it has now decided in Moscow for there to reinforce the already deployed troops to call for a possible attacker and a high price it so as to deter. For the nuclear weapons of Russia to a nuclear-free country such as Japan barely restrained act because it lacks the Russian side at will to use them.
Moscow's decision, the 3,500-strong 18th Division artillery on the southern Kuril strengthen Islands was an unpleasant surprise for Japan. For Russia, went to her but no way.
[...] The biggest problem with a defense case would be the geographical proximity of the Islands to Japan. In theory, the Japanese troops, the islands Kunashir and Iturup attacked suddenly. Besides hovercraft and helicopters could also be used in many fishing boats.
Above all, it should be taken that Japanese usually well planned, but unexpected attacks tend to trigger fighting - that they have shown in all wars in which they participated. The short distance of the South Kuril would be beneficial to move masses of Japanese troops and goods in ships, boats and helicopters. Kunashir might directly from the Japanese territory with rockets and artillery weapons (including high-precision missiles) be fired.
The Japanese troops are well trained and highly motivated. They are also equipped with modern weapons and modern technology. Particularly important is that the Japanese have unique mobile high-precision fire resources as the tactical missile of the types 96 and 6 have XATM-that are installed on ground vehicles.
on the Russian islands, they could be associated with simple transport and would be an effective means of struggle not only against tanks, but also against the artillery and protected firing positions. Thanks to its superiority in the air and its high-precision weapons of the Japanese defensive position on the Russian islands could break a lot easier than you might expect.
possibilities and reality
are present, the Russian forces on the Kuril Islands and throughout the Far East is not able to prevent such a scenario. The forces of the 18th Artillery Division are primarily non-combat readiness and are therefore mostly not suited to fighting.
also are the troops on the islands of Kunashir and Iturup far apart and are mainly equipped with heavier, but old technology. Because of the difficult terrain, these forces are difficult to set in motion. Obviously, the shortcomings in air defense. Under these circumstances, the Russian troops threatened in the event of a landing of the enemy the fate of the Argentine army in the Falkland Islands in 1982.
The warships of the Pacific fleet to the Kamchatka Peninsula and in the Primorye and thus stationed too far from the Kuril Islands. Their ability to achieve the command of the sea and in the fight against the Japanese navy are therefore not exactly predict. But even if they succeed, it would be no obstacle for the Japanese during the landing and supply their forces on the Kuril Islands.
Continuous blockade of the Kuril Islands by vessels of the Pacific Fleet would be because of the Proximity to the coast of Japan impossible. Moreover, the threat from these vessels stationed on the coast of Japan's missile and fighter jets would be exposed. Still less would
Russia's chances at an air battle for the islands. The nearest Russian airfields that are suitable for combat aircraft, are located on Sakhalin and Kamchatka. Bases with fighter aircraft MiG-31 and Su-27SM are stationed on Kamchatka and in Komsomolsk on Amur.
Even if a large part of the Russian air force from other regions in the Far East should be relocated, had the Japanese an air of superiority over the Kuril Islands and Hokkaido. Especially since the Japanese benefit from their more modern weapons from their well-trained pilots, and from nearby radars would. All this makes the air supremacy of Russia in the event of military action is highly questionable.
reason for Russia would be the only possible war scenario in this region, the maximum delay of a battle to Kunashir and Iturup, while preparing a major anti-landing operation in which would participate in the air and naval forces. It could try to reach at least for the time of this anti-landing operation, a local air superiority.
give Still you that Russia's effective strategy in the fight for the Kuril Islands in the long term only at the risk of escalation and expansion of the war, including bomb and rocket attacks, could be based on the whole territory of Japan.
What to do?
It is clear that necessary for the implementation of the described scenario for the defense of the South Kuril the combat readiness of the garrison would be stationed on the islands, which also should be furnished with the latest technology and modern weapons. Among other things, it's about strengthening the air defense of the islands where modern anti-aircraft missiles of medium and long-range future, should be installed. In addition, on the coast Firing positions against small surface targets are stationed.
Restructuring stationed on the Kurile Islands repellent would be desirable. One should give up the idea of total coverage of the long coastline, which would be difficult to attend to anyway, if the enemy would use light landing facilities. Therefore, the garrisons on Iturup and Kunashir be pulled together. They should be protected from the firing positions and air defense forces.
If I can judge, the recent measures aim to modernize the defense of the islands in that direction. Thus, the conversion of the troops stationed there has already begun. Last year, the old tank T-55 T-80BW replaced by more modern. Also should be placed on the Kuril Islands Buk-M1 air defense missiles of medium range.
The conversion of the 18 Division in an ever-embattled organization that would represent the "new image" of the armed forces to become the next important step to promote the defense capability of Russia's territory, claimed by a foreign country permanently. The military-political leadership of Russia should continue to deal with the defense of the southern Kuril Islands.
[...]"
Hopefully, that keep the men in Tokyo responsability in the minimum of rationality and succumbing to the lure of the "northern territories". After all, we think in Moscow of several scenarios for the islands after falling from a free trade zone over a substantial demilitarization of the region to the next page 1956-standing division of the islands. With demonstrative hardness Japan is doing well in this case do not. This surprised all the more so as the conflict is protracted, delaying a friendly economic use of the island region of course. And yet it must also be situated Japan. Further, one can only hope that the Government of the United States will begin soon, a moderating influence on Tokyo, held once again pour oil into fire .
bibliography and related links:
I. Kramnik: upgraded Russia Kuril Islands
M. Barabanov: South Kuril - upgrade for the V-case
F. Lukyanov: Kuril islands, Russia and Japan in the period Clinch
D. Kossyrew: U.S. and Kuril dispute - Entrenched
M. Chapman: Noun, verb, Kurils (Again)
R. Rozoff: U.S. Backs Japan in Looming Confrontation With Russia
I. Kramnik: Kurilskij
prezedent A. Petrova: Ot raket Thurs wertoletow
O. Isajtschenko: Poslednjaja diwisija
D. Gore Castle: Is the Mistral deployment to the Pacific a dagger Aimed at the heart of the U.S. Pacific Fleet?
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Photos: Itar-Tass.
